Obama is an Existential Threat to Israel

A former Marine Strike Planner made some interesting points on the Mark Levin show (h/t Doug Ross):

The beauty of Baku is that the Caspian Sea is right at the end of the runway. It's a straight shot, maybe 300 miles, from that base to Tehran. A good radar altimeter will get an F-4, F-16, F-15 strike fighter maybe 25 feet off the water. Going in at that altitude, you're not going to be picked up by radar.

But there's something even more important here. The Iranians are not expecting an attack from the north. Now, with the revelation of this relationship, they are. And that has a lot of implications beyond the tactical.

Think of it this way. Prior to this revelation, the Iranians -- although they noticed some connections between Israel and Azerbaijan -- didn't know how deep that connection was.

Now the Iranians can start bullying the Azerbaijanis. They can send a diplomat up to Baku and say, basically, 'if any Israeli plane hits us from the north, when we get our nuke, we are going to test it on Baku. Of course that will all happen behind the scenes, but the threat will be made.

Now, I want you to consider this: there are many ways to attack Iran. You can go for the nuke sites. Or you can go for a decapitation strike. A decapitation strike is a much easier operation if you're coming from Azerbaijan.

Think of it this way: every once in a while, the Iranians have a little get-together. They bring all of the Mullahs together in one place... Why not? They'd be doing us and the world a tremendous favor if they did that.

And it's not going to happen now.

I can guarantee that all of those new Soviet anti-aircraft missiles that the Iranians bought are all going up north now, pointed and waiting for something there. In fact, they'll probably put radars on the Caspian from the mountaintops there, just to see if there's anything come up off the water.

Strategic, tactical surprise: gone.

You have to ask for the motivation behind the leak. I mean, if the Israelis can do this operation, it's to our benefit! From a diplomatic standpoint, if you wanted to tell the Iranians that the Israelis did this, it's without our permission. And then try to butter up the Iranians after the strike, so they don't close the Strait of Hormuz, that's one thing.

But giving away all of the secrets of an ally? When you're doing that, you have to ask whether we still have Israel as an ally. We are not acting like an ally. In fact, if you ask me, based on the amount of time I expect the Israelis put in this relationship with Azerbaijan, I would start viewing this administration as an existential threat to Israel.

John Bolton Speaks Out Against Obama's Leaking of Sensitive Israeli Information

The Video of Bibi's Awesome AIPAC Speech on Iran

Looks like Israel has made up its mind:

It Might Not Be Hormuz but the Saudi Oil Fields Themselves That Will be in Danger in the Coming Conflict

There has been a lot of talk lately about the potential for the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of conflict following an Israeli or US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The danger is definitely very real as the shipping lane is only 6 miles wide, so even a second rate military power could create quite a bit of havoc if it wanted to. However, any temporary closing of the Strait, and it would be temporary, probably won't have that much of an impact on our oil supplies in the medium to long term. Tankers that are bottled up in the Persian Gulf can be unbottled again once the US devotes enough sea and air power to destroy any threats.

However, what people don't seem to be talking about much is the threat to the Saudi oil fields themselves. Saudi Arabia accounts for about a quarter of the world's proven reserves and produces 11 million barrels per day of oil. As you can see in the map below, the oil producing fields, including the immense Ghawar (it can produce 5 million barrels per day by itself), are concentrated in the eastern section of the country, the section closest to the Persian Gulf:

Unfortunately, the Saudi oil fields are relatively close to Iran, which is just across the Gulf. But more importantly, take a look at this map of the Shia sections of Saudi Arabia:

As you can see, the Shia population of Saudi Arabia seem to be living right on top of the bulk of the oil resources of the country (conversely it seems that the Jews wandered 40 years in the desert and found the one place in the middle east without any oil). Importantly, the Shia in Saudi Arabia have been oppressed by the Wahhabi Saudis for decades so what do you think might happen if Shia dominated Iran comes asking for their help? My guess is a large minority will be happy to stir up trouble by attacking the Saudi oil fields. If the Iranians were smart they would have been smuggling weapons to sleeper cells there for years waiting for their moment. Once the fighting starts, I also wouldn't be surprised if some Iranian Revolutionary Guards come across the gulf or smuggle themselves in through Iraq (which has a Shia dominated government & military).

So while our forces are focusing on keeping the flow of oil going through the Strait of Hormuz, the actual source of the oil itself could be in some very real danger. Let's hope we have some contingency plan for this, hopefully one that doesn't date back to Operation Desert Shield.