Also Sprach Analyst has a nice
analysis of China's demographic problems which can probably be summarized best by this comparison with Japan's profile back in 1990:
And here is a key quote from a
paper from Nicholas Eberstadt that Also Sprach quotes from:
In this future China, there would be fewer people under the age of 50 than in China today – and many fewer Chinese in their 20s and early 30s. On the other hand, there would be many more elderly Chinese than today – vastly more, in fact, in their 60s, 70s and 80s. This dramatic shift in China’s population
...
China’s total working age population is set to fall between 2010 and 2030. Furthermore, as noted above, China’s manpower pool will be ageing over these years; in fact, by 2030, there would be more than four older (50–64 years) prospective workers for every three younger counterparts (15–29 years) – a complete inversion of the current ratio. With a smaller and much greyer Chinese workforce on the horizon, sustaining the growth rates of the recent past would be a truly counter-intuitive proposition.
Should be interesting to see how China manages this. Once again, people who think something will grow in a straight line forever will be shown to be rather wrong.
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