Is China the Next Japan?

Also Sprach Analyst has a nice analysis of China's demographic problems which can probably be summarized best by this comparison with Japan's profile back in 1990:

And here is a key quote from a paper from Nicholas Eberstadt that Also Sprach quotes from:

In this future China, there would be fewer people under the age of 50 than in China today – and many fewer Chinese in their 20s and early 30s. On the other hand, there would be many more elderly Chinese than today – vastly more, in fact, in their 60s, 70s and 80s. This dramatic shift in China’s population

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China’s total working age population is set to fall between 2010 and 2030. Furthermore, as noted above, China’s manpower pool will be ageing over these years; in fact, by 2030, there would be more than four older (50–64 years) prospective workers for every three younger counterparts (15–29 years) – a complete inversion of the current ratio. With a smaller and much greyer Chinese workforce on the horizon, sustaining the growth rates of the recent past would be a truly counter-intuitive proposition.

Should be interesting to see how China manages this. Once again, people who think something will grow in a straight line forever will be shown to be rather wrong.