Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Japan Set to Double Sales Tax to 10% and Set to Have Several More Lost Decades

The lost decade of the 1990's in Japan turned into a lost two decades as the 2000's were little better, and unfortunately, it looks like the pain is likely to continue for a long time to come.  Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is an enormous 236% thanks in part to disastrous demographics which will cause the population to shrink by a third in the next 50 years.  This will lead to a one worker/one retiree ratio by 2050, an extremely unsustainable level as there is no way one worker can sustain one retiree and have enough money to support a decent lifestyle.  It's only a matter of time but something has to give, retiree benefits just have to be cut and retirement ages have to rise, otherwise Japan will be in a permanent depression.  Unfortunately, the Japanese government, at the behest of the IMF, has decided to put more pressure on its fragile economy (nominal GDP is actually 10.6% less than it was in 1997) by doubling the sales tax to 10%.  To make matters worse, the IMF actually wants them to increase the tax some more to 15%.  This will all put enormous pressure on consumers as well as the economy as a whole potentially causing a Greek like crisis.  Rising massive debt leves and a falling economy can make for a combustible mix.

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