In reading about what is going in Egypt, I'm really struck by how surprised most analysts (and intelligence services) were about the complete and total Muslim Brotherhood takeover of that country. Sure they were expected to win the elections but who thought they would be able to defeat the much vaunted Egyptian military so quickly? They've been able to do in a matter of months what took the Turkish Islamists over a decade to achieve.
Right now it seems like most people just don't know what to think. Everyone knows that the Muslim Brotherhood is a dangerous Islamist organization that is anti-American and anti-Israel but nobody seems to be able to fathom that Egypt, our ally for decades, could turn to the dark side. There seems to be quite a bit of wishful thinking out there, that the Muslim Brotherhood has moderated and that US aid will keep Egypt in line given its current economic difficulties. I think what people are missing is how bad things could very well be, how a worst case scenario could be unfolding right now (being Jewish you know that the worst case scenarios often happen).
I'm wondering if the current roadmap isn't similar to the one used by the Nazis in Germany. President Morsi was able to use a terrorist attack that left 16 Egyptian soldiers dead as an excuse to clean house in the military and put his own people in charge in a matter of days. This attack could very well be the modern equivalent of the Reichstag Fire in 1933. Then, a supposedly Communist arsonist set the Reichstag, the German parliament, ablaze just 4 weeks after Hitler was sworn in as Chancellor (the Nazis had a plurality but not a majority in parliament at the time). Hitler used the fire as an excuse to arrest Communists across Germany, including members of parliament, effectively giving Hitler a majority. He also suspended civil liberties and all newspapers not deemed friendly to the Nazis (note the recent intimidation of "unfriendly" news outlets in Egypt, including the possible crucifixion of opponents). Within just 30 days of the fire, Hitler was able to get the Enabling Act passed, giving him the power to rule by decree and effectively making him dictator of Germany). With over 3/4 of parliament in Islamist hands and the military out of the way, Morsi can effectively do the same thing and rule by decree.
Morsi's next move also seems to mirror something from Nazi Germany as he remilitarizes the Sinai just as Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland in 1936. Back then, in violation of the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, Hitler sent troops into the Rhineland, which was meant to be a buffer zone between France and Germany (and of course the allies did nothing despite the fact they still had a military advantage at that point). Just like the move into the Rhineland, Morsi sending tanks into the Sinai is in violation of the peace treaty with Israel as the Sinai is meant to be a buffer zone between the two countries. The situation is so serious that Israel has reportedly sent a stern message via the White House to Egypt. Israel is right to be worried. Over the decades, Israel has felt very comfortable along its southern border, so much so that its barely defended. In the terrorist attack mentioned above, a single armoured vehicle was able to get 1 mile into Israel despite the fact that the Israelis knew it was coming. They simply didn't have the firepower close by to stop it. They had to wait for the Air Force to arrive to save the day. If the Egyptians have major forces in the Sinai, Israel would have to revamp their entire defensive structure or else be very vulnerable to a surprise assault.
So we've already gone from the Reichstag Fire to the Rhineland, could a modern equivalent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact be next? That was the alliance signed a little more than 1 week before the start of World War II in which two archenemies signed a non-aggression pact and also secretly divided Poland between them. Could something like that be in the offing? It's already been announced (and trumpeted by the Iranian press) that Morsi is about to go visit Iran, the first Egyptian leader to do so since the two countries broke off diplomatic relations in 1979 (it really didn't take Morsi long to reverse 33 years of Egyptian foreign policy). Any sort of Iranian-Egyptian alliance could be very bad news, especially if they sign any sort of mutual defense treaty related to Israel. If they do something like that, would Israel still attack Iran when there are Egyptian armoured forces next door in the Sinai? I realize that Iran is Shia and Egypt is Sunni, so any such treaty would be difficult. But it would actually help Egypt in its attempt to replace Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Sunni segment of the Arab world.
Anyway, these are just some thoughts and suspicions, I don't necessarily think this is what is actually going on (I don't think anyone actually knows outside of Morsi's head and maybe some close associates). I don't mean to be a Cassandra, but so far, the Egyptian "revolution" has surprised to the downside, its possible it will continue to do so.
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