Monday, August 20, 2012

Israel Can't Trust That Obama Will Do What Needs to Be Done on Iran

There has been some chatter lately about a US offer in which they promise to attack Iran by June 2013 if Iran has not halted their nuclear program by then.  According to Debka, some components of this deal (which are yet to be agreed to) are:

1.  President Obama will formally inform the two houses of congress in writing that he plans to use military force to prevent Iran from arming itself with a nuclear weapon. He will request their endorsement. Aside from this step's powerful deterrent weight for persuading Iran's leaders to give up their pursuit of a nuclear bomb, it would also give the US president the freedom to go to war with Iran when he sees fit, without have to seek congressional endorsement.
2. To underscore his commitment, President Obama would pay a visit to Israel in the weeks leading up to election-day and deliver a speech to the Knesset solemnly pledging to use American military force against the Islamic Republic if Tehran still refuses to give up its nuclear weapon program. He will repeat that pledge before various other public forums.
3, In the coming months up until Spring 2013, the United States will upgrade Israel's military, intelligence and technological capabilities so that if President Obama (whether he is reelected or replaced by Mitt Romney) decides to back out of this commitment, Israel will by then be in command of the resources necessary for inflicting mortal damage on Iran's nuclear program with a unilateral strike.
debkafile's military sources note that an influx of these top-grade US military resources would bridge the gap between American and Israeli ticking clocks for an attack on Iran, and dispel the fear in Jerusalem that delay would give Iran time to bury its key facilities in "zones of immunity" - outside Israel's reach for serious damage with its present capabilities.

While some, like Kadima Chairman Mofaz, sound like they are willing to believe Obama's determination to keep Iran from going nuclear, any such thoughts are simply the triumph of hope over experience and also seem to indicate a certain naivete about political promises.  As we all know, political promises are only kept as long as it is expedient to do so and they are discarded when they become inconvenient.  I don't care what Obama signs or how public his testimonials are about his resolve to attack Iran, when the time comes there is absolutely nothing to actually compel him to keep his promise.  After all, what is Israel going to do to him if he doesn't keep it? Sue him?  Try to get Congress to force him to attack?  Unfortunately, as Commander-in-Chief, there is nothing anyone can do to make him launch a pre-emptive strike.  All Congress can do is decide to authorize it or not and fund it or not.  And because he is term-limited there are absolutely no repercussions from him chickening out, in fact he would probably frame it in a way that makes him sound prudent "although the drums of war are beating, I feel its better for us to focus on our own economy". 

What about all those armaments that Obama will give Israel to enable them to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities in exchange for this deal?  I think there is always a way for the US to stop an Israeli attack if it wanted to. Threats to cut of munitions supplies and other assistance in case of a regional war could put a damper on Israeli war plans.  Israel could literally run out of bullets without arms supplies from the US in event of a regional conflict.

And finally, is there any history of the US attacking nuclear facilities pre-emptively?  Nope.  The US was concerned about the Iraqi Osirak nuclear facility in the early 1980's but did nothing about them and even condemned Israel when they did something (though Dick Cheney did thank the Israeli's for doing so 10 years later during the first Gulf War).  Then what about the Syrian nuclear facility?  After a lot of back and forth being Israel and the George W. Bush administration, Israel bombed it as they couldn't wait any longer for the Bush administration to get on board.  In North Korea, there are reports that Clinton was ready to go to war to destroy their nuclear facilities but then agreed to a deal at the last moment.  A deal that North Korea clearly broke as they now have nuclear weapons.  The US also did nothing to prevent Pakistan or India from crossing the nuclear threshold.  Time after time, the US has done nothing to prevent nuclear proliferation when push came to shove.  Why would it be different this time?  Because of all the overwhelming evidence that Obama would do anything to defend the Jewish state?  Ha!

Israel needs to control its own destiny and needs to act now before its too late.  And beware of US administrations in election years bearing gifts.

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