Tuesday, June 7, 2011

We May Be Past The Point of No Return On Iranian Nukes

After all the hoopla about Stuxnet, I really hoped that the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons was delayed for a while, at least a few years.  Unfortunately, according to Gregory S. Jones at RAND, using data from the IAEA, Iran will have enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon in 8 weeks.  He also states that it is too late to stop Iran with airstrikes, only a military occupation would be effective enough to stop the Iranian nuclear program.  Since we all know a US military invasion is a complete nonstarter, if this report is true, it looks like our biggest enemy in the world will soon have nukes.  I remember growing up, living in fear of a nuclear conflict with the Soviet Union (I did tend to watch a lot of post-apocalyptic themed movies).  When the Soviet Union fell, I breathed a sigh of relief and thought that I'd never have to worry about it again.  I guess I might have been wrong.  We do still have two hopes though, first, that the report is simply incorrect and that the IAEA data is inaccurate.  That is a distinct possibility since you never know if what the IAEA is actually seeing is the truth.  It could be a potemkin village built by the Iranians to hide the fact that their systems have been crippled by Stuxnet. 

Another hope is that internecine warfare between the mullahs and Ahmadinejad causes them to take the eye off the prize as the two camps kill each other.  Although this has been ignored by the mainstream media, you can see some evidence of this conflict here.  Apparently, some of Ahmadinejad's supporters have been arrested for "sorcery" and periodically you hear denunciations for "deviance" and "occultism".  It's not news that Ahmadinejad is mad as a hatter and is trying to accelerate the coming of the 12th Imam.  It could be the mullah's are sick of his messianic fantasies.  Or maybe his allies are just taking too much money from their allies.  Either way, this is a fight where the more casualties, the better.  Maybe if there is enough tumult, both parties will be thrown out and a free and democratic Iran will rise (okay, now I'm having the fantasies, but there is some chance of that happening, albeit miniscule). 

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