I just couldn't help but notice how poorly Santorum is now doing in some of the state polls for upcoming contests. In the latest Marquette University poll, Santorum is now down 8 points against Romney in Wisconsin (primary is on April 3rd). In the previous Marquette poll, conducted in mid-February, Santorum was up by a whopping 16 points! A 24 point swing in a little over a month is nothing to sneeze at, though it is probably par for the course in this roller coaster of a GOP primary.
Even worse, he currently only has a 2 point lead in his home state of Pennsylvania (primary is on April 24th) according to the latest Franklin & Marshall poll. This is a monumental collapse compared to the 29 point lead he had in the Franklin & Marshall poll taken in mid-February. At this rate, he will lose his home state by the time the primary rolls around, and that would be a blow that he won't be able to recover from, despite the facts that all PA delegates are unbound anyway. Home states represent the people who know you best and if you can't even carry your own party's primary there, well, that is certainly a sign of something.
The news is no better in North Carolina (primary is on May 8th), where the latest PPP poll shows Santorum and Romney currently tied. This is a state where at one point Newt was leading by 37 points so it should be prime Santorum country, especially when facing a Massachusetts liberal like Romney. Could Santorum still pull North Carolina out? Sure, he isn't exactly behind in the polls, but you have to understand where the race will be once North Carolina rolls around.
On April 3rd, we will see results for Wisconsin, Maryland and DC. It looks highly likely at this point that Santorum will lose all three (he isn't even on the ballot in DC). Then on April 24th, results from a bevy of northeastern states, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania & Rhode Island, will be released. None of these states are demographically friendly to Santorum and so he will likely lose at least four of them, if not all 5 (as the latest PA poll implies). So, only after losing what will likely be 8 in a row will he stumble into Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia, which will be friendlier territory. After neighboring Illinois and Ohio went for Romney, Indiana will be tough to win for Santorum, though it could be relatively close. West Virginia, which has become a more reliably conservative state over the years, is also a state where Santorum wasn't able to get a full delegate slate in all the districts (so even if he wins he likely loses). If the race is in such a state on May 8th, how can Santorum even hope to win North Carolina? Heck, it's very conceivable that Santorum might no even win another primary until May 22nd, when Arkansas and Kentucky Republicans vote.
How did the campaign of St. Rick get to such a point? Santorum was marketed as a true conservative who was diligent and disciplined. He essentially stole many of Newt's talking points and kept trotting out his family to show he has a strong moral character and no personal baggage. But the truth of the matter is that his record is actually not that conservative on economic policy and in just the last week he flew off the handle at least thrice, throwing a tantrum on Neil Cavuto's show, implied he would rather go with Obama instead of Romney and even swore at a reporter. On top of all that, he turns off a large percentage of the Republican electorate with his over the top moralizing that makes people fear the government inserting itself into their private lives.
Rick is done. The sooner his supporters realize this, the better. There is still time if they get behind Newt, who has a more conservative record, can unite all factions of the party, is a fantastic speaker and also seems to be a much more loyal Republican (he has repeatedly said that any Republican would be better than Barack Obama). If Santorum supporters stick to rick, Romney seems to be on track for 1,144 and, if that happens, the hopes of a conservative emerging from a brokered convention disappear.
Well, we tried convince Rick to bow out and let Gingrich campaign as the true conservative, but he wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteKind of ironic that his meltdown might well let Mitt "the Hitman" Romney get enough delegates by June.