Monday, November 5, 2012

Prediction: Romney 51%, Obama 48% and Others 1% and 331 Electoral Votes for Romney

I realize the conventional wisdom has Obama winning at least the electoral vote, thanks mostly to state polls showing him leading in states like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  But there are quite a few reasons why I believe that Romney is going to pull this one out:

1.  Enthusiasm is on Romney's side.  While Romney is attracting 30,000 people when he speaks, Obama is actually underperforming what McCain was able to attract in 2008 at the same venue.  Romney is also able to attract as many people in the Philadelphia suburbs which are really all that are keeping Pennsylvania in the Democratic column during Presidential elections.

2.  Independents are breaking hard for Romney.  In poll after poll Romney is winning independents.  In fact, in the latest CNN poll, Romney is winning independents by 22%!  That's an amazing number and if the truth is anywhere close to that, there is no way Romney will lose this election.  The poll in total is tied at 48% apiece but that seems to only be because the sample has an 11 point Democratic advantage, at least a few points more than we saw in 2008.  There really is no evidence that Democratic turnout will be that great.  In fact, it could be very close to even if not a Republican advantage.  There is also another piece of evidence which shows that the polls are over-sampling Democrats.  Based on the CNN poll, for example, 75% of registered voters say they are likely to vote.  The sad reality is that 75% of registered voters haven't turned out to vote since 1896!  Turnout in 2008 was only 58%.  Those marginal propensity to vote voters are usually Democrats.

3.  As I posted earlier, Democratic incumbents over the last 50 years have only underperformed their final poll results on election day by an average of almost 3%!  Given that and the fact that Obama has trouble breaking 50% in almost all national and battleground state polls, spells defeat for him.  Also remember that all the current polls include last Thursday-Friday which were very positive days for Obama as Chris Christie decided to give him some oral pleasure for the national press (I think he was pissed he was passed over for VP and also was looking to get re-elected in the blue state of NJ next year.  Sure, in a disaster you want to come together but his praise was a little bit too effusive and was much much more than Bloomberg's).  The farther we are from last week's Sandy coverage, the greater Mitt's lead will be.

4.  You are seeing quite a few former Obama supporters go to Romney but almost none go from McCain to Obama.  When 33 papers like the Des Moines Register, the New York Observer, the New York Daily News and the Wisconsin State Journal going for Romney, despite historic liberalism, Obama is clearly in trouble.  Note the talk is all about which states that he carried in 2008 will he lose rather than which will he turn blue.  That's not exactly a sign of strength even though he does have a buffer, one that I think will crumble.

5.  A horrible financial situation for the country.  $1 trillion deficits will eventually destroy this country.  Liberals like to say "look at interest rates, things are okay" but even Greece had Germany like interest rates just a few years ago.  Things change, and quickly.  Also, the only way that we have been able to fund those deficits is by having the Federal Reserve buy our own debt.  In 2011, 61% of issued federal debt was bought by the Federal Reserve. Imagine what will happen when they stop?

Here is what I think the final map will look like:

Is 331 electoral votes aggressive as a prediction?  Maybe, but I think that when people get into the voting booth they would rather vote for someone with a proven bipartisan record who will get America back on track and not have another four years of:

  • Extremely high levels of government regulation which is stifling small business and new startup formation.
  • Divisive government.  The Democrats have been saying that the Republicans have been obstructionists, well how much did Obama try to work with Republicans on Obamacare?  He knew he had 60 votes in the Senate so he just crammed it down our throats.  He didn't consider the fact that he would poison the well by doing so and there is no reason to believe Republicans will forget this in a second term.
  • Constant crises that could be averted were Obama a sincere negotiator.  Obama was able to outmaneuver Republicans on the debt ceiling with the sequester/gang of 12 solution, but you can only do that once.  With taxmaggeddon and the debt ceiling issue all coming up again in the next few months, we will probably be in for nothing but pain.
  • Lies, damn lies and evasions.  Obama did nothing despite Americans being under attack for 7 hours in Benghazi and this administration has tried to cover it up for the last month and a half by saying the FBI is still investigating (despite the fact there is no evidence that the FBI actually is as they haven't set foot in Benghazi yet).  And don't forget Fast and Furious, a ATF program that left hundreds of Mexicans dead.  Or all the crony capitalist handouts from Obama's stimulus programs.
  • Betrayal of our allies, especially Israel.  Americans believe in helping our friends and hurting our enemies.  Obama seems to have things exactly backwards as he promotes the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt while doing nothing but criticize Israel when he isn't campaigning for Jewish votes.
I think Americans will want a second Independence Day, a new dawn for America rather than 4 more years of darkness.  That is why we will be saluting President Romney come January 20th. 

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