Bachmann and Santorum Are Betting the Farm on Iowa

The Des Moines Register has a nice Candidate Tracker where you can see where a candidate is in the state on any particular day and even which counties they have visited. Importantly, the also sum up the total number of days that a candidate has spent in the state and how many events they had. It's understood that candidates who don't spend time in Iowa usually don't win the caucuses:

It's pretty clear from this graphic that Bachmann and Santorum are really, really focused on Iowa, with Santorum spending over full 3 months (94 days with events) campaigning in the state with 280 events! Bachmann is not that far back with 74 days in the state and 192 events. Both of them have been to nearly all 99 Iowa counties. Even more amazing is that they can't seem to break 10% in any poll out there and are both averaging 7-8% support. It's very possible they could surge in the last week after people start making up their minds but it really isn't looking good. Remember, the laws of physics dictate that they can't be in two places at once so all those days they spent in Iowa meant they weren't spending the time in New Hampshire or South Carolina. No wonder their polling numbers are downright abysmal in those states, especially in New Hampshire where neither can break through 5% support in the polls.

I used to think that Bachmann and Santorum need to be at least #3 in Iowa to stay in the race and be viable, but I'm not sure about that. Given how much time they have spent in Iowa at the expense of every place else, I think they really need to finish #1 or #2. Think about it, how can they make an argument that they are viable if they finish #3 in Iowa and then #5 in New Hampshire? That's not exactly momentum. Sure McCain was able to get the nomination after coming in at #4 in Iowa but that is because he won New Hampshire and then South Carolina. Iowa is really going to be make or break for Bachmann and Santorum. I just hope they have the sense to drop out of the race if they don't make it as #1 or #2 or else they will continue to siphon off votes from other Conservatives and helping Romney.

Back to the day/event totals, I was rather surprised to see that Perry has spent so little time in Iowa. He is #6, behind even Herman Cain who dropped out of the race weeks ago! What has he been doing? He seems to have the funding and the staff to do great things but doesn't seem to be. It's not like he is focusing on New Hampshire or South Carolina as his number seem pretty bad there too. In some polls he only gets 1% in New Hampshire! I just don't understand what is going on there.

I think the Romney numbers are misleading. Yes, he is clearly not doing many events in Iowa but he is spending at least $3.1 million on television ads. Just for the sake of giving some perspective, there are only 3 million people in Iowa so this is like spending over $300 million on national ad buys, an enormous amount. What people have to remember though is that Steve Forbes spent $4 million on advertising in Iowa in 1996 and ended up in 4th place behind Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander and just ahead of Phil Gramm. I don't think the other candidates spent nearly that much money on ads. What happened was that Iowans don't like being carpet bombed with ads, preferring old fashioned styles of campaigning, so Romney's ads may backfire on him quite a bit.

I really doubt Ron Paul will win in Iowa. Yes he has dedicated supporters but they aren't very good at convincing others of their rightness. Also, Iowa farmers don't seem like the type of people who would go for his schtick.

I think Newt can still pull it off. I think the Paul bubble will pop in the next two weeks and I just don't see Iowans going for Romney. They might go for a Bachmann or a Santorum, but Newt is just a superior candidate to both of them. Think about how much time they have spent in Iowa and yet they still are in the second tier in the polls. That is at least a hint of something.

Anyway, we'll see what happens.