Friday, November 18, 2011

Newt is Tied, Statistically, with Romney in NH

According to the latest poll from Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire, Romney is leading Newt by only 2% in that key state in a survey of 746 likely voters done earlier this week.  I certainly didn't see this poll coming as Romney has had what seemed to be an insurmountable lead all year.  The smallest lead he has had previously was from one poll (run by the Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling [PPP]) of only 341 registered voters in which he had a 7% lead over Bachmann back in June/Jully.  Other than that, the next smallest lead he has had was 15% with most of the polls showing him leading by 20-30%.  Neither the Cain nor Perry boomlet got those candidates anywhere near Romney. In the October Magellan Strategies poll, Romney was leading Cain by 21% in that state.  Seems like the Newt boomlet may turn out to be more than a boomlet.    If Newt does beat Romney in NH (a big if as NH has an open primary, allowing non-Republicans to vote, a group likely to break for Romney) then Romney will be done, especially if Newt wins in Iowa (where he is leading) and South Carolina (in the latest poll there conducted over a week ago, Cain is #1, Newt is #2, so a new poll should show Newt in the lead there as well).

Go Newt go!

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