Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Third Quarter GDP Revisited

As I mentioned last month when the advance estimate for GDP came in at 2.5%, don't get too excited by the number. Well, lo and behold in today's Q3 GDP revision, the estimate went down from 2.5% to only 2% in the quarter. And in a year-over-year growth analysis (always my preference as it automatically adjusts for seasonality) the economy continues to deteriorate, only growing 1.5% over the third quarter last year:

Even more disturbing, real disposable personal income was flat compared to a year ago. This is a number that only turned negative in Q1 2009 and before that you had to go back to the 1974 recession to see it turn negative. Also, on a sequential basis, it's down two quarters in a row. No wonder people are so gloomy, their personal finances are officially in a recession. Anyway, here is real disposable personal income over the last 10 years:

Given this situation, it's really nice to see a President demanding tax increases, sabotaging shovel ready projects and focusing almost exclusively on campaigning.

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