Wednesday, August 14, 2013

US Treasury: The Market is Only Going Up Because of the Federal Reserve

The US Treasury Department recently released an interesting presentation which contained the following charts on the impact of Fed purchases on equity markets (h/t Zerohedge):

As you can see, the market corrects every time the Fed is no longer in QE mode (the white sections) and then spikes up every time they restart it (the blue sections).  Here is another chart:

As you can see from the above chart, on a weekly basis, the more active the Fed is, the higher the market goes.  And if the Fed isn't active that week, the market tends to go down.

Clearly the stock market can no longer be relied upon to provide signals of anything other than how active the Federal Reserve is.  The Fed just blew another stock bubble to help in the aftermath of a real estate bubble that they created in the aftermath of the last stock bubble.  

Isn't the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results?

Oh and just one more chart from that Treasury presentation:

You know how we are pretty much dependent upon foreign institutions to fund our debt?  Well they seem much less interested in doing so now than they used to.  So who is going to buy our debt when the Federal Reserve starts to taper?  Say hello to higher interest rates (which is probably a good thing longer term).  

1 comment:

  1. Very interesting. And what effect do you believe this will have on the housing market in this year and the next? We've seen limited inventory and high demand for those searching for Weston MA real estate and in the surrounding areas. I'm curious to see if this trend continues into the coming months.