Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Interesting tidbits from NH poll

Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald just came out with a NH poll which was interesting:

Trump is leading by a bit, followed by Jeb and surprisingly by Kasich and Cruz.  Kasich certainly showed more charisma at the debate than Jeb, I wonder if there is a chance that the establishment decides to go with him instead at some point?  Walker's support has completely collapsed and Paul's has also gone down dramatically.  Carly Fiorina had a nice jump and also looks like she has very high favorables with very few people hating her:

Carson, Fiorina, Kasich and Rubio all have very low very unfavorables.  Trump on the other hand has more people that hate him than love him, which I hope means he can't go up much further in the polls.  The following chart though really helps cement the idea not to trust any of these polls at this point, at least on voter preference:

Obviously Graham and Perry are outliers as they don't have much support to begin with and neither will likely be able to last until NH anyway.  The lesson though is that switching is highly likely between now and the NH primary so take all these numbers with a grain of salt.  Carly Fiorina looks like she should be especially focused on cementing her support following her little boomlet.  Honestly, if I was asked the same question I would also answer that I could change my mind.  It's still very early in the process and I think it is important for conservatives to back one candidate at some point so our vote doesn't get split and we don't end up with someone we just can't stomach at all.

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